The bullpen strikes out hitters and does not walk them
Entering Sunday, Phillies relievers had a 19.2 K-BB% — strikeout rate minus walk rate. It is one way to measure how good a pitcher is at controlling what he can control. That 19.2 percent is the best mark by a bullpen this season.
It’s the 10th-best K-BB% for any big-league bullpen in the last decade.
That is notable because, in constructing their bullpen, the Phillies have prioritized stuff over everything else. That big-time stuff does not always come with the best command. But the Phillies have found a successful equilibrium. They have thrown quality strikes. Their relievers lead the majors with an average 96.1 mph fastball velocity.
The bullpen’s 7.8 percent walk rate is the lowest for a Phillies bullpen since 1978. It has declined in each of the last three seasons — from 10.7 percent in 2022 to 9.4 percent in 2023 to 7.8 percent now.
Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have combined to permit 21 walks and three homers in 112 1/3 innings. They have struck out 32 percent of the batters they’ve faced.
Not all of it is perfect, but the Phillies have a type. They have optimized hard-throwing relievers who have not always been strike-throwers. That is something to consider as the front office considers potential trades later this month.
The stars did their part, but so did the reserves
When 30 percent of a team’s 26-man roster are All-Stars, it indicates the quality of what the Phillies have built. The Phillies are where they are because of exceptional performances from some of their best players.
But the story of the first half cannot be told without the contributions from unexpected sources. They went six weeks without Trea Turner, a month without Realmuto and intermittent time without Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh. The Phillies expect to rely on their stars come October, but reaching 28 games over .500 at the break takes a collection of players.
For a few weeks while he replaced Turner, Edmundo Sosa was one of the best shortstops in baseball. The Phillies have gone 17-14 without Realmuto, who underwent knee surgery in early June. Kody Clemens and David Dahl, neither of whom are on the current active roster, delivered big hits. Rafael Marchán has started 14 games at catcher and, in those games, he’s hitting .300 with a .912 OPS.
When the Phillies needed a fifth starter to begin the season, Spencer Turnbull gave them 32 1/3 innings of a 1.67 ERA.
“Just complete team wins,” Turner said. “We do it a lot of different ways. The pitching was so good all the way through. Hitting’s obviously pretty good, as well. We won some close ones. We won some blowouts. We bounced back from some tough times. We got on rolls. Just a lot of cool games that we played. Kind of what we wanted when we started the year, and it came to fruition.”
The All-Star break arrived with a gruesome game Sunday that, weirdly, demonstrated how far the Phillies have come in almost four months. They could have started Zack Wheeler but exerted caution because his back was hurting him. They could have pushed some of their best relievers, who have been used often in recent days, but decided against it. They have built a cushion that allows them to prioritize the bigger picture.
The Phillies will be playing in October.
They entered the break with the best record and largest divisional lead in Major League Baseball. They have the best run differential. They have the second-lowest ERA in the National League and have averaged more runs scored per game than any other team.
So, they took a beating Sunday afternoon from the last-place Oakland A’s. The first half ended with catcher Garrett Stubbs on the mound for the Phillies in an 18-3 loss. What will stick with manager Rob Thomson as he reflects during the All-Star break?
“Probably our starting pitching — how really good it was, how consistent it was,” Thomson said. “And it’s kind of ironic that you say that on a day you give up 18 runs. But the starting pitching has been really good. And we just have to keep them healthy.”
The Phillies are on pace for 104 wins, which would set a franchise record. Their rotation, along with timely hitting, has carried them to this point. Their top four starters — Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez — are why many in baseball consider the Phillies the favorites to win the World Series. There will be challenges ahead — namely, keeping those four starters healthy. Nothing is guaranteed. But a first half like the Phillies had affords certain luxuries.
Here are three takeaways from the first half.
Suárez and Sánchez took meaningful steps forward
The two lefties combined to throw 217 1/3 innings before the break; that’s 25 percent of the team’s total. Combined, they posted a 2.86 ERA. The Phillies expected both to be solid mid-rotation starters. They have outperformed that label, so far, and it’s a huge reason the Phillies are where they are.
The only lefty starters with better ERAs than Suárez and Sánchez in the entire sport: Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale. The Phillies have legitimate reasons to believe both of their lefty starters are primed for sustainable success. They rewarded Sánchez in June with a four-year contract that guaranteed him $22.5 million. No one in the majors throws a changeup as often and with as much effectiveness as Sánchez does. Opponents have a .185 slugging percentage against Sánchez’s changeup, a pitch he uses a third of the time. It’s real.
The Phillies won 13 of Suárez’s first 14 starts. He’s tapered off in the past few weeks; no pitcher on staff might miss catcher J.T. Realmuto’s guidance more than Suárez.
“I’m not choosing my pitches correctly,” Suárez said after his last start. “I’m not pitching them where I want to.”
Back spasms have affected Suárez’s command in recent outings. But, more than anything, he’s trying to navigate a larger workload than ever before. Having Realmuto, who is set to return next week, implement the right in-game pitch mix will help.
The Phillies once went 267 straight games — from September 2016 to July 2018 — without a lefty starting a single time. Now they have two All-Star left-handed starters to anchor the middle of the rotation.
Cristopher Sánchez reacting after he shut out the Marlins on June 28: Matt Slocum / Associated Press
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