Chase % as a Right-Handed Hitter

The biggest knock against Thomas is that he has hit only .211 with a .616 OPS in 214 PAs against right-handed pitching this season. That OPS ranks him the 14th worst hitter against righties. Those splits hold up over Thomas’ six-year career, as he owns an .891 OPS against LHP and a .680 OPS against RHP.

There was a time over the last two seasons, especially in 2023 when he posted a .787 OPS and a career high 28 HRs, that Thomas looked like he was developing into an everyday starter. After logging a .682 OPS against RHP in 2022, Thomas improved in 2023 to a career high .719 OPS against same-sided pitching. But he has now regressed to his pre-2023 form despite cutting his strikeout rate vs. RHP to a career low (25.7%) for a full season.

Does all of this sound familiar? Thomas is very similar to Brandon Marsh except with the handedness reversed. Both excel against different sided pitching and struggle against same sided pitching. Both looked to finally be turning the corner in that regard in 2023 before regressing in 2024.

Defensive fit

Unlike Marsh, Thomas is not a strong defender. He has -12 defensive runs saved this season and the same number for his career in the outfield primarily played in right. He has -8 outs above average this season and -14 for his career. Curiously however, he was never quite this poor of a defender until this season, having never posted a DRS worse than -1 or an OAA worse than -3 before 2024. This could possibly be related to an MCL sprain Thomas suffered in April that landed him on the injured list until May 27th, missing 29 games.

There’s also the strong possibility that Thomas would not only just play over Marsh when the Phillies face a left-handed starter. Despite his platoon splits, he is still around a league average OFer. Playing him roughly twice may be considered a poor use of resources. The Phillies could play him in left with Marsh in center against certain righties, but that would be a dramatic downgrade to their defense. Marsh is much better in left than center and Rojas is only here for his glove. A corner defensive tandem of Thomas and Castellanos would not be conducive to preventing runs.

Age and contract

Thomas is just 28 years old and is under team control via arbitration through the end of next season. He received a raise this season to $5.45M from his 2023 salary of $2.2M. Thomas is likely to receive another modest raise in his final year of arbitration. This amount of control and cost is likely a double-edged sword, as the trade acquisition cost will be higher, but he will remain with his new team for 1.5 seasons at a reasonable price.

Risks and cost

But do the Phillies want to pay the price in prospects and money to lock Thomas in for what is essentially a part time role as a platoon starter against LHP? His name was bandied about last trade deadline, but nothing materialized, likely because teams were scared off by the price due to his remaining control. Now there’s less of that and more evidence that he may not reach the highs he did in 2023, likely driving the cost down a little.

Yet, the utter dearth of options on the market will likely still make Thomas a hot commodity. There’s the very likely scenario that other teams will view him as an everyday starter and thus be willing to pay more than teams that view him as a platoon player. Also throw in the fact that the Nationals would likely charge the Phillies a “divisional tax” as they would be sending Thomas to an NL East rival.

Thomas likely would not cost the Phillies Andrew Painter or Aidan Miller like Luis Robert Jr. or Randy Arozarena might, but it may cost a Mick Abel or a Justin Crawford. Would the Phillies be willing to pay that price for a player who may not start every day? Are they willing to diminish the playing time of Rojas and downgrade their defense for the sake of offense? These are the questions the Phillies and Dombrowski will have to reckon with if they choose to seriously pursue Lane Thomas.